Repost from Predictive History: The US-Iran End Game

 

 Original source: https://predictivehistory.substack.com/p/the-us-iran-end-game

This war ends with the rise of Pax Judaica.

Predictive History

Mar 21, 2026

We are but three weeks into this senseless and pointless war, and it seems certain now that the Americans will commit boots on the ground. The Pentagon is deploying an additional five thousand troops to the Middle East, and Netanyahu has re-appeared to say that the war must be won on the ground, not from the air. Trump has asked for two hundred billion dollars from Congress, signaling that he intends to fight a long war. (Since February 2022, the United States has provided $183 billion to Ukraine).

An empire in decline suffers from a lethal dose of hubris and desperation, and Trump seeks a knock-out punch. Trump started the war with no clear objective, and now he has decided upon an impossible objective: Control the Strait of Hormuz, and permit safe maritime navigation.

As I discussed last week, Kharg Island promises to the point of entry and escalation. With a daring assault on the island, Trump’s television brain hopes that he will regain the narrative, and stir the patriotic pride of Americans. With ninety percent of Iran’s oil exports in his very large and not small hands, Trump believes he can force Iran to negotiate a favorable peace.

As every military analyst has pointed out, it’s one thing to take Kharg Island, and quite another to hold it. The Marines will be sitting ducks, and the Iranians can besiege them with artillery. Tens of thousands of infantry will be necessary to secure the Iranian coastline, and hundreds of thousands will be necessary to hunt down Iran’s underground bases in the Zagros Mountains.

Meanwhile, the Iranians have proven that — if pushed too far — they could in one day mine the Strait of Hormuz, set ablaze the energy infrastructure of the GCC, and torpedo the global economy, which would result in revolutions, famines, and resource wars around the world. In retaliation for the Israelis bombing their natural gas field, the Iranians with one blow destroyed 17 percent of Qatar’s LNG capacity, resulting in at least $20 billion in revenue loss.

If you are a certified member of the global financial elite (which includes City of London, Wall Street, sovereign wealth funds, and the Bank of International Settlements), now might be a good time to panic. How will transnational capital respond to this Middle East quagmire?

Let us do a thought experiment. Let us pretend that this elite of central bankers, asset managers, and private bankers assemble an emergency meeting in Basel. Should they continue to prop the financial markets, the US dollar, and consumer confidence, or let them all nose-dive? Even before their private jets land, they should have all come to the same set of conclusions.

America cannot win this war because it suffers from three strategic vulnerabilities. First, there is a lack of political will. Most Americans do not support this war, and a civil war is raging within MAGA. Second, America does not have the manufacturing capacity to fight a war of attrition. The military is running low on interceptor missiles, and it is cannibalizing weaponry and munitions from South Korea and Japan. Third, the Pentagon is deadly afraid of a high casualty count. There are already rumors of low morale among American soldiers, who refuse to die for Epstein or Israel or Jesus.

The greatest casualty of this war has been the American empire’s aura of inevitability and invincibility. It turns out that America’s costly and awe-inspiring weapons systems are costly and awe-inspiring, and nothing more. Aircraft carriers are white elephants that must hide from Iran’s cheap drone swarms.

Air defense systems have shown they don’t work as advertised. In an interview with Glenn Deisen, MIT Professor Ted Postol pointed out that the concept of “air defense” was always a fraud perpetuated by the Military-Industrial Complex (MIC).

Then there is the F-35, a stealth fighter plane that is the pride and joy of the American Air Force. It took twenty-six years to develop, and costs at least $100 million each. It is meant to be the Pentagon’s ninja assassin. The Iranians did the impossible when they locked onto a F-35 with their radar, and shot it down. Centcom has confirmed that an F-35 was indeed forced to make an emergency landing. This shatters the illusion that the Americans and Israelis have aerial supremacy over Iran. Ninjas have no clothes, either.

Transnational capital seeks security and stability for its investments, and it now sees that the American empire — with its corrupt and overwrought MIC — can provide neither. On the other hand, Israel has proven that it does have the commitment, the capacity, and the determination to serve the interests of transnational capital.

Despite the constant barrage of Iranian missiles and drones, polls show that around eighty percent of Israelis want to fight this war to the end. Israel does not have the awesome aerial firepower of the Americans, but the Mossad — with its ability to infiltrate, subvert, and decapitate — is more effective at negotiating the political chaos and divisions of the Middle East.

Because they are fortified by two oceans, the Americans can feed their parasitic MIC by launching wars of aggression without care or consequence. The Israelis would be more strategic and pragmatic.

Here’s how a deal can be brokered to end this war. America retreats from the Middle East, and Centcom is absorbed into Israel. The GCC becomes client-states of the Israelis, and the Israelis broker a deal with the Iranians. The Iranians acquire the Strait of Hormuz, and can charge a ten percent toll. They have the option of developing nuclear weapons if they abandon their proxies. All economic sanctions against Iran are lifted, and the GCC pays reparations for security guarantees. Israel achieves its Greater Israel Project, and Iran can focus on developing its industrial base and trade networks with the help of Russia and China.

Transnational capital will flood the region, salivating at the opportunities that peace in the Middle East promise. There will still be fissures (the Iranians will refuse to abandon their proxies), and Armageddon between Israel and Persia can only be delayed, not avoided — but that is a story for another time.

There is a hindrance to this happy ending, and that is the American empire, who will not go quiet into that good night. They will rage and rage against the dying of their might until finally their nation ruptures, and economy implodes. This is a process that might take two years, or it could take twenty.

Why not accelerate the process, and arrange euthanasia for the terminally ill? That would mean financing anti-war protests, instigating civil conflict, and triggering an economic depression. Expect eventually a false flag attack on America’s financial data centers, wiping out from memory the savings of thousands of Americans.

Let us conclude our thought experiment. There will be an eery silence permeating this emergency meeting for the world’s most elite financiers. Without saying a word, they all come to believe that Pax Judaica is the best hope for humanity. Each and every one of them will know what he or she must do. Then, with their plan to save the world in place, they can enjoy their pizza and grape soda.

The puppet-masters have forgotten something though. They themselves also suffer from a lethal dose of hubris and desperation. They do not notice that a couple of puppets have broken loose, and are plotting in the shadows.

Their names are Trump and Putin, and they have their own plans — but that’s a story for another time.